Tranquility White Paper
Executive Summary
Tranquility's passive radiative cooling system (350,000 m² panels) and compute hardware face two major lunar
environmental threats: abrasive regolith dust accumulation/degradation and cumulative radiation damage (solar
flares, GCRs). The original plan identifies these as open questions with medium confidence but lacks
aggressive Earth-analog and in-situ testing programs.
2026 Starship flight cadence and Artemis uncrewed missions create near-term opportunities for real lunar data
collection. Top recommendation: By Q3 2026, deploy dedicated hardening test payloads (radiator coupons,
GPU analogs, dust mitigation tech) on early cargo landings, aiming for empirical degradation rates by 2028 to
inform final design margins.
Problem Statement
Key unknowns:
Dust abrasion/optical degradation rate on radiator surfaces (>10%/year could force active cleaning).
Micrometeorite puncture frequency and self-healing potential.
Radiation-induced bit flips / latch-ups in commercial-off-the-shelf GPUs at lunar surface flux.
Long-term thermal coating stability in vacuum + thermal cycling.
Current modeling relies on Apollo/ISS heritage—insufficient for multi-decade GW-scale uptime.
Risks: Higher-than-modeled maintenance opex, reduced radiator efficiency, compute module failures.
Impact: $100M–$1B+ annual opex overrun; SLA breaches.
Background and Discussion
Lunar dust is electrostatically clingy and highly abrasive; radiators must maintain >90% emissivity. Radiation
hardening typically adds mass/cost—Tranquility baseline assumes minimal shielding via regolith burial + spot
shielding.
pinkhouse.tech Page 1 of 4 Tranquility White Papers
Early in-situ data de-risks both far more than Earth chambers.
Potential Solutions
Modeling + Earth Analog Only
Pros: No flight cost.
Cons: Low fidelity.
Resources: Existing.
Enhanced Earth Vacuum Chamber Program
Description: Expanded testing with lunar simulant dust, proton irradiation.
Pros: Faster data.
Cons: Still analog.
Resources: $50–100M.
Early Lunar Test Payloads
Description: Deploy radiator coupons, dust exposure experiments, rad-hard test chips on 2027–2028 cargo
missions.
Pros: Real environment data.
Cons: Mass allocation competition.
Resources: $200–500M.
Active Dust Mitigation Development
Description: Electrostatic curtains, mechanical brushes, coatings—parallel to testing.
Pros: Insurance against high degradation.
Cons: Adds complexity/mass.
Resources: $300–800M.
Full Radiation-Hardened Compute Baseline
Description: Switch to space-grade GPUs/CPUs from start.
Pros: Eliminates risk.
Cons: Higher cost, lower performance density.
pinkhouse.tech Page 2 of 4 Tranquility White Papers
Resources: $10B+ premium.
Evaluation and Ranking of Solutions
Ranking: 3 > 4 > 2 > 5 > 1
In-Depth Analysis of Top Solutions
Top Solution 3: Early Lunar Test Payloads
Implementation Steps:
Q1 2026: Design passive exposure racks (radiator materials, solar cells, electronics boards).
Q3 2026: Secure mass allocation on early Starship lunar flights.
2027–2028: First deployments; robotic inspection setup.
2029: Retrieve or downlink full degradation data.
Economics: $350M total; prevents $B-scale overruns if baseline assumptions wrong.
Assumptions & Risks:
Assumption → Starship lunar missions available 2027+ for payloads (Confidence: High).
Breaks if → Dust worse than 20%/year → trigger active mitigation (Sol 4).
Top Solution 4: Active Dust Mitigation
Implementation: Parallel development—prototype electrostatic/brush
systems for deployment if test data warrants.
Conclusion
Real lunar environmental data is the highest-leverage de-risking investment available in the near term. Early
test payloads will either confirm passive baseline or trigger controlled mitigation—far superior to Earth-only
extrapolation.
Recommendations and Next Steps
pinkhouse.tech Page 3 of 4 Tranquility White Papers
Q1 2026: Form Environmental Hardening task force.
Q3 2026: Finalize test payload manifest for first lunar flights.
2028: First on-site data return.
Metrics for Success: Empirical degradation rates locked by 2029; opex uncertainty reduced to <10% variance.
Integration with Tranquility Core
Directly resolves top Open Question #2 (dust/micrometeorite rates).
Ties to Cooling, Compute Hardware, and Robotics pieces.
Bucket: Continuous tracking of lunar environmental analog improvements.
pinkhouse.tech Page 4 of 4 Tranquility White Papers